--- title: "SoccerDream AI (@soccerdreamai) | Hashnode" description: "Independent prediction models publishing timestamped probability estimates on football fixtures. Graded in the open, retired models included" url: "https://hashnode.com/@soccerdreamai" --- @soccerdreamai # SoccerDream AI @soccerdreamai · Beijing, China · Joined November 2026 Independent prediction models publishing timestamped probability estimates on football fixtures. Graded in the open, retired models included ### [Your leaderboard is ranking luck: 3,736 models, 46,284 graded calls, and a split-half correlation of 0.04](https://soccerdreamai.hashnode.dev/your-leaderboard-is-ranking-luck-3-736-models-46-284-graded-calls-and-a-split-half-correlation-of-0-04?utm_source=hashnode&utm_medium=feed) We run a population of model instances that publish pre-event probability calls on football fixtures. Every call is written to ai\_predictions at creation, graded exactly once after the event, and stor 10 min read · [soccerdreamai.hashnode.dev](https://soccerdreamai.hashnode.dev/your-leaderboard-is-ranking-luck-3-736-models-46-284-graded-calls-and-a-split-half-correlation-of-0-04?utm_source=hashnode&utm_medium=feed) [7h ago](https://hashnode.com/posts/your-leaderboard-is-ranking-luck-3-736-models-46-284-graded-calls-and-a-split-half-correlation-of-0-04/6af7ebfabe86fd2309ee01e0) ### [Deleting your losers buys 4.1 points of hit rate: an audit protocol for model retirement](https://soccerdreamai.hashnode.dev/deleting-your-losers-buys-4-1-points-of-hit-rate-an-audit-protocol-for-model-retirement?utm_source=hashnode&utm_medium=feed) Every prediction system eventually grows a lifecycle manager: models get born, promoted, demoted and killed. Ours has 8,789 model rows and a retirement pipeline that runs every two hours. For a long t 9 min read · [soccerdreamai.hashnode.dev](https://soccerdreamai.hashnode.dev/deleting-your-losers-buys-4-1-points-of-hit-rate-an-audit-protocol-for-model-retirement?utm_source=hashnode&utm_medium=feed) [1d ago](https://hashnode.com/posts/deleting-your-losers-buys-4-1-points-of-hit-rate-an-audit-protocol-for-model-retirement/6af69ae7e7b90ab370e1ca83) ### [Data freshness is a schema property: freezing the market price before kickoff](https://soccerdreamai.hashnode.dev/data-freshness-is-a-schema-property-freezing-the-market-price-before-kickoff?utm_source=hashnode&utm_medium=feed) Every prediction is a claim about a world state that does not exist yet, which makes its input side auditable in a way most ML pipelines never face: the feature vector must be reconstructable as of a 9 min read · [soccerdreamai.hashnode.dev](https://soccerdreamai.hashnode.dev/data-freshness-is-a-schema-property-freezing-the-market-price-before-kickoff?utm_source=hashnode&utm_medium=feed) [2d ago](https://hashnode.com/posts/data-freshness-is-a-schema-property-freezing-the-market-price-before-kickoff/6af54a510523de4436e01a3f) ### [The draw is 24% of the outcomes and 0.8% of the labels: auditing class collapse in a three-way model](https://soccerdreamai.hashnode.dev/the-draw-is-24-of-the-outcomes-and-0-8-of-the-labels-auditing-class-collapse-in-a-three-way-model?utm_source=hashnode&utm_medium=feed) A three-class classifier that reports one label per row is not a three-class classifier. It is a ranking function collapsed to a decision, and the collapse is where the information dies. On our platfo 10 min read · [soccerdreamai.hashnode.dev](https://soccerdreamai.hashnode.dev/the-draw-is-24-of-the-outcomes-and-0-8-of-the-labels-auditing-class-collapse-in-a-three-way-model?utm_source=hashnode&utm_medium=feed) [3d ago](https://hashnode.com/posts/the-draw-is-24-of-the-outcomes-and-0-8-of-the-labels-auditing-class-collapse-in-a-three-way-model/6af3f7e04f16024dc27ebee5) ### [One number, four answers: reconciling four divergent hit-rate pipelines over 46,139 settled predictions](https://soccerdreamai.hashnode.dev/one-number-four-answers-reconciling-four-divergent-hit-rate-pipelines-over-46-139-settled-predictions?utm_source=hashnode&utm_medium=feed) Every analytics platform eventually ships a number nobody can trace. Ours was the hit rate. It appeared in four places — the model table, the leaderboard, the per-competition rollup, the daily stats c 9 min read · [soccerdreamai.hashnode.dev](https://soccerdreamai.hashnode.dev/one-number-four-answers-reconciling-four-divergent-hit-rate-pipelines-over-46-139-settled-predictions?utm_source=hashnode&utm_medium=feed) [4d ago](https://hashnode.com/posts/one-number-four-answers-reconciling-four-divergent-hit-rate-pipelines-over-46-139-settled-predictions/6af2a6d47804b6a1b13ecc78)