---
title: "Discussion on \"How to Tell Whether Your Forecasting Model Beats the Market: A Python Walkthrough\" | Hashnode"
description: "Discussion on \"How to Tell Whether Your Forecasting Model Beats the Market: A Python Walkthrough\". Brier scores, the Murphy decomposition, a clustered bootstrap and a blending test, run on an open dataset of 5,654 timestamped model forecasts against Polymarket prices.\nIf you build a probabilistic m"
url: "https://hashnode.com/posts/how-to-tell-whether-your-forecasting-model-beats-the-market-a-python-walkthrough/6af786fdc9c4a9fa707c8f6c"
---

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# [How to Tell Whether Your Forecasting Model Beats the Market: A Python Walkthrough](https://neuportal.hashnode.dev/how-to-tell-whether-your-forecasting-model-beats-the-market-a-python-walkthrough?utm_source=hashnode&utm_medium=feed)

Brier scores, the Murphy decomposition, a clustered bootstrap and a blending test, run on an open dataset of 5,654 timestamped model forecasts against Polymarket prices. If you build a probabilistic m

1d ago · 7 min read · neuportal.hashnode.dev  
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Can AI Predict Prediction Markets? Polymarket, Kalshi & the Limits of Machine Forecasting

Can AI Predict Prediction Markets? Polymarket, Kalshi & the Limits of Machine Forecasting

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