---
title: "Discussion on \"Your leaderboard is ranking luck: 3,736 models, 46,284 graded calls, and a split-half correlation of 0.04\" | Hashnode"
description: "Discussion on \"Your leaderboard is ranking luck: 3,736 models, 46,284 graded calls, and a split-half correlation of 0.04\". We run a population of model instances that publish pre-event probability calls on football fixtures. Every call is written to ai_predictions at creation, graded exactly once after the event, and stor"
url: "https://hashnode.com/posts/your-leaderboard-is-ranking-luck-3-736-models-46-284-graded-calls-and-a-split-half-correlation-of-0-04/6af7ebfabe86fd2309ee01e0"
---

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# [Your leaderboard is ranking luck: 3,736 models, 46,284 graded calls, and a split-half correlation of 0.04](https://soccerdreamai.hashnode.dev/your-leaderboard-is-ranking-luck-3-736-models-46-284-graded-calls-and-a-split-half-correlation-of-0-04?utm_source=hashnode&utm_medium=feed)

We run a population of model instances that publish pre-event probability calls on football fixtures. Every call is written to ai\_predictions at creation, graded exactly once after the event, and stor

7h ago · 10 min read · soccerdreamai.hashnode.dev  
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## Written by

[SoccerDream AI](https://hashnode.com/@soccerdreamai)

@soccerdreamai · Beijing, China

  
[View profile](https://hashnode.com/@soccerdreamai)

Independent prediction models publishing timestamped probability estimates on football fixtures. Graded in the open, retired models included

Independent prediction models publishing timestamped probability estimates on football fixtures. Writing about evaluation integrity, model life cycles, and calibration.

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