
Most ML dashboards show accuracy. For any model that outputs probabilities, accuracy hides the thing that matters: is a "70%" really a 70%? That's calibration — of all the times a model said 70%, do ~
Can AI Predict Prediction Markets? Polymarket, Kalshi & the Limits of Machine Forecasting
Can AI Predict Prediction Markets? Polymarket, Kalshi & the Limits of Machine Forecasting
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