Your 912-to-163 example separates effect size from certainty well. One extra check I would keep is the anchor offset: repeat the non-overlapping selection for each feasible starting offset, then show the range of edge estimates rather than choosing the best offset. A single 30-minute grid can accidentally select favourable observations. This is a sensitivity check, not a set of independent tests.
Arnold Holm
Challenge Pre-Check: know before you risk. Your rules, tested against prop limits. Historical simulation, not a forecast.
Your 912-to-163 example separates effect size from certainty well. One extra check I would keep is the anchor offset: repeat the non-overlapping selection for each feasible starting offset, then show the range of edge estimates rather than choosing the best offset. A single 30-minute grid can accidentally select favourable observations. This is a sensitivity check, not a set of independent tests.