@berkansesen

MCMC for Mixture Models: Inferring Earthquake Regimes

May 16 · 17 min read · Between 1900 and 2006, the number of major earthquakes per year ranged from 6 to 41. In some decades the planet averaged fewer than 15; in others, closer to 30. That is far too much variation for a si

Q-Learning for Games: Teaching an Agent Tic-Tac-Toe Through Self-Play

May 11 · 16 min read · Tic-tac-toe is a solved game. Any competent adult can force a draw every time. But can an agent figure that out with zero human knowledge? Give two agents a blank board, a few simple rules about wins

Value Iteration vs Q-Learning: Dynamic Programming Meets RL

May 4 · 14 min read · You have a map of the frozen lake. Every crack in the ice, every slippery patch, every hole is marked. You can sit at your desk and plan the perfect route before stepping foot on the ice. That is valu

Custom Likelihoods in PyMC: One-Inflated Beta Regression for Loan Repayment

May 1 · 20 min read · When a borrower takes out a personal loan, they might repay every penny, default entirely, or land anywhere in between. The interesting variable is the fraction eventually recovered: a number between

Bayesian Survival Analysis with PyMC: Modelling Customer Churn

Apr 29 · 18 min read · Every subscription business lives or dies by churn. Whether it is a B2B SaaS platform tracking annual contracts or a consumer app watching monthly renewals, the question is the same: how long will thi