@berkansesen

Cox Proportional Hazards: The Workhorse of Survival Analysis

1h ago · 14 min read · Survival analysis starts with a question: how long until an event happens? A patient relapses, a customer churns, a borrower defaults on a loan, a prisoner is rearrested. Parametric models answer by a

MCMC for Mixture Models: Inferring Earthquake Regimes

2d ago · 17 min read · Between 1900 and 2006, the number of major earthquakes per year ranged from 6 to 41. In some decades the planet averaged fewer than 15; in others, closer to 30. That is far too much variation for a si

Q-Learning for Games: Teaching an Agent Tic-Tac-Toe Through Self-Play

6d ago · 16 min read · Tic-tac-toe is a solved game. Any competent adult can force a draw every time. But can an agent figure that out with zero human knowledge? Give two agents a blank board, a few simple rules about wins

Value Iteration vs Q-Learning: Dynamic Programming Meets RL

May 4 · 14 min read · You have a map of the frozen lake. Every crack in the ice, every slippery patch, every hole is marked. You can sit at your desk and plan the perfect route before stepping foot on the ice. That is valu

Custom Likelihoods in PyMC: One-Inflated Beta Regression for Loan Repayment

May 1 · 20 min read · When a borrower takes out a personal loan, they might repay every penny, default entirely, or land anywhere in between. The interesting variable is the fraction eventually recovered: a number between