blog.jmatthews.ukThe Kristi Noem Forecast: How AI Underpriced Transactional LoyaltyOn January 30, 2026, I ran a prediction through Perspectives: "Kristi Noem out by March 31?" The system returned a 23% probability. Eight forecasting personas debated the question, interrogated each o14h ago·8 min read
blog.jmatthews.ukThree Predictions on Iran: What Perspectives Got Right, Got Wrong, and Couldn't See ComingOn January 28, 2026, we ran three related predictions through Perspectives, a multi-agent forecasting system that uses AI personas to debate the likelihood of future events. The questions were all foc4d ago·21 min read
blog.jmatthews.ukPerspectives Development Update: Persona Sets & Prediction ModePerspectives previously used a fixed set of 8 philosophical personas for all debates. This created a mismatch between the analytical lens and the decision being made. Evaluating a feature prioritisation decision through Sociopath's strategic weakness...Jan 12·6 min read
blog.jmatthews.ukPerspectives Development Update: Interrogation of Blind ProposalsI've rebuilt how debates work in Perspectives. The system now runs structured interrogations of blind proposals rather than open-ended discussion threads. The change addresses fundamental problems with how debates generate useful analysis. The Proble...Jan 8·4 min read
blog.jmatthews.ukPerspectives Development Update: 2026 W1Perspectives has received three major updates: a new analysis report system, web search integration, and a redesigned interface. These changes address core limitations in how the system supports decision-making. Analysis Reports Replace Summary Secti...Jan 4·4 min read
