I think the question should be: "Who will be producing better code after a year?".
All other things equal, I thin k the React programmer will be producing better code because react forces you to learn, and get into the habit of, good design patterns like component structure, top down data flow, and if they're using redux, immutable data management.
It'll also push you into code bundling, splitting, es6, etc.
The vanilla person can do all these things, but they're not pushed into them. So if their motivations, dedications, responsibility etc are all equal, I think React will get the edge.