Half the runs done within two minutes and one in ten taking more than twenty is the whole estimation problem in one line. A plan made of many agent tasks is shaped by how the long tails stack, and a single number hides exactly that.
Giving P50, P80, and P90 for a plan, and sampling uncertainty once per simulation rather than per task, is the honest version. Otherwise a hundred tasks average out into a confident date that never happens. Flagging cells with fewer than 30 runs instead of quietly using them is a good habit too.
At Ascendra Ventures we price fixed-scope work from the tail, not the typical case, because the client pays for the run that goes long. Data like this makes that conversation much easier than a gut feel.
Do the risk labels move the tail more than the task kind does, or is task kind still the bigger driver in your data?
Mohamed Zhioua