May 11 · 10 min read · Back to notes I am a fire Aries ruled by Mars, and even I will not pretend the future is a thing you can read off a chart. Calibrated uncertainty does the work prediction promises. The difference shows up six months later, when you can still grade wh...
Join discussionApr 28 · 4 min read · Most decisions are not clean. You don’t always have time to design things properly. You don’t always get a stable backend. You don’t always get clear requirements. And still... you’re expected to ship
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Mar 17 · 5 min read · The follow-up to: Why Modern Businesses Need Decision Systems, Not More Tools Most leaders nod along when they hear that decision systems matter more than tools. The argument makes sense. The logic is
Join discussionMar 12 · 6 min read · For years, I played high-stakes poker. Poker teaches you a brutal lesson very quickly: Results don’t matter as much as decisions. You can make the perfect decision and still lose the hand.You can make
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Mar 1 · 21 min read · On January 28, 2026, we ran three related predictions through Perspectives, a multi-agent forecasting system that uses AI personas to debate the likelihood of future events. The questions were all foc
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Mar 1 · 1 min read · Data-Driven Decision Making: From BigQuery to the Boardroom By Pablo M. Rivera | East Haven, CT Pablo M. Rivera has advanced data skills — BigQuery, R, Google Data Analytics, and Salesforce reporting. But the real skill isn't in running queries. It's...
Join discussionMar 1 · 3 min read · Collaborative filtering has transformed how people discover products, content, and experiences. By analyzing patterns across many users, these systems predict individual preferences and present curated options that shape billions of daily decisions w...
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