The Overconfidence Effect: Why Summarized Memory Makes AI Agents Worse

Feb 27 · 5 min read · Here's a result we didn't expect: an AI agent with carefully curated synthetic memory performed worse than one with no memory at all. Not slightly worse. Significantly worse. 2.65 vs 3.30 out of 5.0. We call it the "overconfidence effect" — and it mi...