KKea MmakolaOct 6 · 7 min readI Built a Prediction Bot Just to Prove Your Betslip Will LoseI spent weeks building a prediction engine for the top five European football leagues. The goal was simple, bordering on a developer cliché: write enough Python to find an edge in the market. The crazkeammakola.hashnode.dev
JJosé NunesSep 1 · 22 min readProduct of ExpertsIn this article, you will learn what a Product of Experts (PoE) is, why it matters, and how it works. By the end, you will understand the relevance of PoE and be able to understand implementations. P2ml-classroom.hashnode.dev
CCalculatorQueenAug 28 · 7 min readExpected Value Is Not a Forecast: Engineering a Transparent Crafting CalculatorRandomized crafting systems invite a deceptively simple question: “Is this recipe worth attempting?” A calculator can produce a number quickly, but that number is only useful if its assumptions remaincalculatorqueen.hashnode.dev
UUche OzoemenaJul 16 · 9 min readThe Sigmoid Function: A Layman's IntuitionThe question What does it mean when someone says the sigmoid function converts outputs of a predictive model into a probability value? The task To address that question, let's start with a task that'sincodethismeans.com
FFundacja Dobre PaństwoMay 26 · 1 min readHow Much Does Tomorrow Cost? The Mathematics and Ethics of Financial MarketsThis article provides a deep analysis of the mathematical framework of contemporary finance, treating quantitative tools as a grammar for describing an uncertain future. The author focuses on the triafundacjadobrepasntwo.hashnode.dev
MMacaulay001May 11 · 7 min readBerkeley's 1973 admit rates flip sign when you stop pooling the departmentsPart 74 of Forgotten Theories, a series re-testing old scientific claims with modern tools. Find the rest under the #forgotten-theories tag. In 1903 Udny Yule wrote a short paper on the association between two attributes in a 2x2 table. He noticed t...forgottentheorieshashnodedev.hashnode.dev
MMacaulay001May 11 · 6 min readI tested Bertrand's 1887 ballot formula on 648 vote splits and the answer was always (p-q)/(p+q).Part 100 of Forgotten Theories, a series re-testing old scientific claims with modern tools. Find the rest under the #forgotten-theories tag. In 1887 Joseph Bertrand sent a four-page note to the Comptes Rendus of the French Academy. The question he ...forgottentheorieshashnodedev.hashnode.dev
MMacaulay001May 11 · 6 min readI tested von Mises's 1939 birthday claim with exact arithmetic and 10^5 Monte Carlo trials per group size. 23 people really is enough.Part 99 of Forgotten Theories, a series re-testing old scientific claims with modern tools. Find the rest under the #forgotten-theories tag. In 1939 Richard von Mises published a short paper with the unwieldy title Über Aufteilungs- und Besetzungswa...forgottentheorieshashnodedev.hashnode.dev
MMacaulay001May 11 · 6 min readChebyshev's 1867 bound holds on every distribution I threw at it, and a two-point mix landed within 0.2% of saturating it.Part 98 of Forgotten Theories, a series re-testing old scientific claims with modern tools. Find the rest under the #forgotten-theories tag. In 1867 Pafnuty Chebyshev published a short proof of an inequality that any student of probability eventuall...forgottentheorieshashnodedev.hashnode.dev
MMacaulay001May 11 · 6 min readI sampled a million coin flips with decaying probabilities. The 1909 dividing line showed up exactly where Borel said it would.Part 96 of Forgotten Theories, a series re-testing old scientific claims with modern tools. Find the rest under the #forgotten-theories tag. In 1909 Émile Borel was working through a problem about decimal expansions of real numbers, and he proved a ...forgottentheorieshashnodedev.hashnode.dev
