KKea Mmakola·Oct 6I Built a Prediction Bot Just to Prove Your Betslip Will LoseI built a football prediction bot. Nearly 70% of strong predictions were right, but its betting back-test lost money. Explore the data and code.7 min read·keammakola.hashnode.dev
CCalculatorQueen·Aug 28Expected Value Is Not a Forecast: Engineering a Transparent Crafting CalculatorBuild a transparent crafting expected-value model with visible costs, success probability, break-even chance, validation, and tests.7 min read·calculatorqueen.hashnode.dev
UUche Ozoemena·Jul 16The Sigmoid Function: A Layman's IntuitionOdds, logarithms, and a bit of algebra to make it click.9 min read·incodethismeans.com
FFundacja Dobre Państwo·May 26How Much Does Tomorrow Cost? The Mathematics and Ethics of Financial MarketsThis article provides a deep analysis of the mathematical framework of contemporary finance, treating quantitative tools as a grammar for describing an uncertain future. The author focuses on the tria1 min read·fundacjadobrepasntwo.hashnode.dev
MMacaulay001·May 11Berkeley's 1973 admit rates flip sign when you stop pooling the departmentsIn 1903 Udny Yule wrote a short paper on the association between two7 min read·forgottentheorieshashnodedev.hashnode.dev
MMacaulay001·May 11I tested Bertrand's 1887 ballot formula on 648 vote splits and the answer was always (p-q)/(p+q).In 1887 Joseph Bertrand sent a four-page note to the *Comptes Rendus* of the French Academy. The question he asked is one you can pose to a child. Two candidates run for office. A wins with p votes, B loses with q < p. The ballots are pulled from the6 min read·forgottentheorieshashnodedev.hashnode.dev
MMacaulay001·May 11I tested von Mises's 1939 birthday claim with exact arithmetic and 10^5 Monte Carlo trials per group size. 23 people really is enough.In 1939 Richard von Mises published a short paper with the unwieldy title *Über Aufteilungs- und Besetzungswahrscheinlichkeiten*. Inside is the calculation that everyone now calls the birthday paradox. Pick 23 people at random. The probability that t6 min read·forgottentheorieshashnodedev.hashnode.dev
MMacaulay001·May 11Chebyshev's 1867 bound holds on every distribution I threw at it, and a two-point mix landed within 0.2% of saturating it.In 1867 Pafnuty Chebyshev published a short proof of an inequality that any student of probability eventually meets:6 min read·forgottentheorieshashnodedev.hashnode.dev
MMacaulay001·May 11I sampled a million coin flips with decaying probabilities. The 1909 dividing line showed up exactly where Borel said it would.In 1909 Émile Borel was working through a problem about decimal expansions of real numbers, and he proved a small lemma to dispatch a side case. Eight years later, Francesco Paolo Cantelli sharpened it. Together the two halves became one of the clean6 min read·forgottentheorieshashnodedev.hashnode.dev
