I think you're right and the future is not so much "AGI" as it will be "what does X system solve?"

More generally, I imagine we'll see a few paths and I'm not sure which (or maybe all) will endure. One path is finding the places where LLMs fit well. I think today they are vastly overestimated, but the hype should recede as they settle into specific use cases.

Second should be growth in other AI approaches such as conceptual / symbolic / "ontological" AI. Those are more difficult than the grab-and-train black box approach of LLMs but are also more plausibly powerful. What is unclear is when and whether they will achieve large-scale success.

A third category is various mash-ups between the two, which are already happening. Such as LLMs for generality, plus targeted symbolic AI for depth in some area or other.